A close reading of the 2025-2026 signals: what they mean for allocators
Data does not speak for itself — it requires an allocator's reading. Four primary sources converge on a single thesis: capital has shifted to where a genuine bridge between investors and execution is needed. Not intermediation, not generic advisory: oversight, governance, execution aligned with the capital's objectives. I read these numbers through the discipline of the CGE Alignment Index — Capital · Governance · Execution.
DLA Piper Energy Transition M&A 2026: $599bn, fewer deals, more complexity
Energy-transition M&A reached $599 billion of value (up over 20%), with deal volumes down roughly 15%. The infrastructure, services and storage value chain alone stands at $271 billion (+38%). When deals are fewer but larger, programme-governance risk grows non-linearly: a megadeal in energy transition needs technical and governance oversight that most investment structures do not have in-house. That is the gap I operate in.
Bain Global PE Report 2026: 71% of value from EBITDA — "12 is the new 5"
Seventy-one percent of value created in 2024 PE exits came from revenue and EBITDA growth, not multiple expansion. "12 is the new 5": holding periods are lengthening, value built through execution rather than financial leverage. For allocators, the ability to monitor and correct execution during the holding period has become the primary value lever — choosing the right deal is not enough, you have to govern it. The Execution Oversight axis of the CGE Alignment Index measures exactly this capacity.
PwC Global Family Office Deals Study 2025: 69% in club deals and co-investments
Sixty-nine percent of family-office deals are structured as club deals or co-investments. Families invest directly — but they often lack the internal capacity for qualified origination and post-closing governance. The capital gap does not exist: the gap is oversight and governance. The family office entering a direct deal has the capital but rarely has a figure who knows both sides — the language of capital and the technical complexity of the asset. The Capital Alignment axis of the CGE Index was built to close this gap.
BCG Global Principal Investors Report 2026: approximately $59 trillion in AuM by 2030
BCG projects roughly $59 trillion of total principal-investor AuM across all asset classes by 2030. More capital, the same number of quality opportunities: deal selection and governance become the competitive advantage, not access to capital. Pressure to deploy increases with available capital — but capital-intensive programmes do not forgive unmonitored allocations. Those without a robust alignment system absorb the cost of misalignment at exit, not at closing.
McKinsey & IEA: the new capital-intensive frontier — AI infrastructure
McKinsey estimates $5.2 trillion in global capex by 2030 for AI-driven data centres — $7.9 trillion under an accelerated-growth scenario. The IEA projects that data-centre electricity demand will more than double by 2030 (415→945 TWh), with a 17% increase in 2025 alone driven by AI; Goldman Sachs estimates data-centre power demand will grow 165-220% by 2030, and Morgan Stanley projects roughly $2.9 trillion of data centres under construction globally by 2028. Four independent sources converge on the same scale: a capex cycle comparable, in size, to the great infrastructure build-outs of the past.
It is a capital-intensive programme in the fullest sense — technical, capital-heavy, with real execution risk (power availability, permitting timelines, supply chain). The CGE Alignment Index requires no adaptation to apply here: the Capital Alignment axis verifies coherence between capital and programme horizon, Governance Architecture the decision rights over an asset with a fast-moving technology curve, Execution Oversight the discipline needed on compressed timelines. I follow it with growing professional attention, applying the same discipline I bring to traditional energy and infrastructure programmes.
Why the capital-industry bridge is the structural answer
Four data points, one thesis: the market rewards those who can stand in the middle. Capital has concentrated into larger and more complex deals (DLA Piper), value is built through execution not multiples (Bain), families invest directly but are under-resourced (PwC), the capital pool is in structural expansion (BCG). The answer is a bridge: a figure who originates, structures, governs and oversees execution — aligned with those who deploy the capital, with the technical competence to read the asset and the governance discipline to protect value throughout the programme.
Observatory method note
Data published in the Observatory comes exclusively from primary sources — DLA Piper, Bain, PwC, BCG, S&P Global, Citi — with an explicit reference to the publication and year. No invented proprietary numbers: only verifiable data and my reading as a capital allocator. The interpretation is mine; the sources are public and citable. The Observatory is updated periodically as the most relevant primary reports for capital-intensive-sector allocators are published.
FAQ — Observatory and data interpretation
How do you select the data you publish?
The criterion is relevance for those who allocate capital in capital-intensive sectors: real assets, energy transition, infrastructure, circular economy. I publish only data from verifiable primary sources, with explicit attribution. I do not publish proprietary estimates, internal projections or numbers that cannot be traced to a recognised public source.
Does your reading of the data constitute investment advice?
No. The Observatory is a market-context analysis — it is not investment advice, and it does not solicit retail investment. The data reading reflects my perspective as a capital allocator and board advisor, not a portfolio recommendation. Every allocation decision requires a specific assessment of the case, the capital and the context.
How often is it updated?
The Observatory is updated when relevant primary reports are published — typically on a quarterly or semi-annual basis, aligned to the main publication cycles of BCG, Bain, PwC, DLA Piper and S&P Global. I do not chase frequency: I chase quality and relevance for real-asset allocators.