The 2025 signal is sharp: energy-transition M&A value grew over 20% to $599bn even as volumes fell ~15% (DLA Piper). In other words, fewer, larger deals. The infrastructure, services and storage value chain rose 38% to $271bn. Capital is not spreading — it is concentrating.
What it means for allocators
Concentration rewards selection and penalises indiscriminate exposure. Within the energy transition, sub-segments diverge sharply (pure renewables retreat in some regions; infrastructure, storage and industrial platforms grow). Allocating well today means choosing the right segment and, above all, governing the programme: real-asset risk is technical before it is financial.
Discipline, not enthusiasm
For funds and family offices the edge is not being there, but how: execution due diligence with an engineering method, governance that protects capital over multi-year programmes, and alignment between sponsor, board and delivery.
How I work. I bring an allocator's lens with engineering roots: selection and governance of capital-intensive programmes in infrastructure, energy, circular economy and industrial platforms — the same discipline as a €1bn European programme across 15 plants.